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Real Jaén vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Real Jaén66%
×Draw19%
Alhaurín14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
2.17
Alhaurín
0.90

Real Jaén creates 141% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 43 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
86%
Real Jaén or Alhaurín
81%
Draw or Alhaurín
34%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
42%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
89%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
64%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
36%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
59%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
23%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
82%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Jaén scores more
66%
level
19%
Alhaurín scores more
14%

Real Jaén at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Jaén vs Alhaurín

Real Jaén beat Alhaurín 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.