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Real Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
8/4/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso56%
×Draw24%
UTC Cajamarca20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.66
UTC Cajamarca
0.88

Real Garcilaso creates 89% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 144 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
80%
Real Garcilaso or UTC Cajamarca
76%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
44%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
30%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
81%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
49%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
59%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
22%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
74%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.66

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
56%
level
24%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
20%

Real Garcilaso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 1 – 0 UTC Cajamarca

Real Garcilaso beat UTC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.