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Real Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
9/16/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Tupac Amaru Sicuani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso52%
×Draw25%
Sport Huancayo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.59
Sport Huancayo
0.95

Real Garcilaso creates 67% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 147 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
77%
Real Garcilaso or Sport Huancayo
75%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
48%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
28%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
80%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
47%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
21%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
61%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
25%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
70%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
52%
level
25%
Sport Huancayo scores more
23%

Real Garcilaso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tupac Amaru Sicuani in SICUANI.