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Real Garcilaso vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
3/25/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso58%
×Draw24%
Sport Boys18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.73
Sport Boys
0.85

Real Garcilaso creates 104% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 145 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Sport Boys
0.86

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Sport Boys
1.77

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
82%
Real Garcilaso or Sport Boys
76%
Draw or Sport Boys
42%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
33%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
82%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
52%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
25%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
57%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
21%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
76%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
58%
level
24%
Sport Boys scores more
18%

Real Garcilaso at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 2 – 0 Sport Boys

Real Garcilaso beat Sport Boys 2-0 in Primera División on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.