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Real Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
2/17/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 3Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso46%
×Draw26%
FBC Melgar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.48
FBC Melgar
1.10

Real Garcilaso creates 35% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 147 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
FBC Melgar
1.36

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
FBC Melgar
1.26

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
72%
Real Garcilaso or FBC Melgar
74%
Draw or FBC Melgar
54%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
23%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
77%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
43%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
19%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
67%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
30%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
62%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + FBC Melgar defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

FBC Melgar attack 1.36 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
46%
level
26%
FBC Melgar scores more
28%

Real Garcilaso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 0 – 0 FBC Melgar

Real Garcilaso and FBC Melgar drew 0-0 in Primera División on February 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.