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FBC Melgar vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
8/24/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín (Arequipa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

FBC Melgar56%
×Draw24%
Real Garcilaso20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.71
Real Garcilaso
0.93

FBC Melgar creates 84% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 39 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
80%
FBC Melgar or Real Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
44%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
31%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
82%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
51%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
24%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
61%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
24%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
73%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
56%
level
24%
Real Garcilaso scores more
20%

FBC Melgar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Real Garcilaso

FBC Melgar beat Real Garcilaso 2-1 in Primera División on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín (Arequipa).