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Real Garcilaso vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
2/9/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 2Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso53%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Municipal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.71
Deportivo Municipal
1.05

Real Garcilaso creates 63% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 102 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
77%
Real Garcilaso or Deportivo Municipal
76%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
47%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
82%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
51%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
53%
level
24%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
23%

Real Garcilaso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Real Garcilaso 5–1 Deportivo Municipal

Real Garcilaso beat Deportivo Municipal 5-1 in Primera División on February 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.