Deportivo Municipal 3–0 Real Garcilaso

Deportivo Municipal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Garcilaso

4/1/2018

Primera División · Torneo de Verano - 9Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Municipal45%

×Draw27%

Real Garcilaso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Deportivo Municipal

1.42

Real Garcilaso

1.08

Deportivo Municipal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 39 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

71%

Deportivo Municipal or Real Garcilaso

73%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

22%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

17%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

66%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

29%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

61%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

45%

level

27%

Real Garcilaso scores more

29%

Deportivo Municipal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff