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Real Frontera vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
2 – 4
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
7/25/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Cancha Alterna De Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Real Frontera38%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.35
Yaracuy FC
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 47 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
64%
Real Frontera or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
62%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
17%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
74%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
39%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
15%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
37%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
52%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Frontera scores more
38%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
36%

Real Frontera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Frontera vs Yaracuy FC

Yaracuy FC beat Real Frontera 4-2 in Segunda División on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Cancha Alterna De Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.