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Real Frontera vs Marítimo — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Marítimo
Marítimoadvanced
6/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Real Frontera36%
×Draw27%
Marítimo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.22
Marítimo
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 55 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
Marítimo
1.22

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
Marítimo
1.07

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
63%
Real Frontera or Marítimo
73%
Draw or Marítimo
64%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
15%
Marítimo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
70%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
34%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
12%
Marítimo 1+ goals
71%
Marítimo 2+ goals
36%
Marítimo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
49%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Frontera scores more
36%
level
27%
Marítimo scores more
37%

Marítimo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Frontera vs Marítimo

Marítimo beat Real Frontera 2-1 in Segunda División on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.