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Real Frontera vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
10/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 13Complejo Deportivo UCAT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Real Frontera41%
×Draw27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.33
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.14

Real Frontera creates 17% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 77 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
68%
Real Frontera or Fundación Lara Deportiva
73%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
59%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
19%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
74%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
38%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
15%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
68%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
32%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
56%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Frontera scores more
41%
level
27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
32%

Real Frontera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real Frontera 4–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Real Frontera beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 4-1 in Segunda División on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo UCAT in San Cristóbal.