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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Real Frontera — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real Frontera
Real Frontera
9/3/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 23Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva46%
×Draw25%
Real Frontera29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.56
Real Frontera
1.20

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 105 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Real Frontera
1.29

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Real Frontera
1.67

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Real Frontera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
71%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Real Frontera
75%
Draw or Real Frontera
54%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
23%
Real Frontera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
79%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
46%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
21%
Real Frontera 1+ goals
70%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
34%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
61%
Real Frontera (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
46%
level
25%
Real Frontera scores more
29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Real Frontera

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Real Frontera 3-1 in Segunda División on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.