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Real Frontera vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
2 – 3
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
8/18/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Frontera40%
×Draw25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.50
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 37 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
65%
Real Frontera or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
75%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
60%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
78%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
44%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
75%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
40%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
53%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Frontera scores more
40%
level
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
35%

Real Frontera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Frontera 2 – 3 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Real Frontera 3-2 in Segunda División on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal).