CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3–0 Real Frontera

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

FT

3 – 0

Real Frontera

11/7/2020

Segunda División · Championship Round - 1Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez50%

×Draw24%

Real Frontera26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Hermanos ColmenarezExpected goals in this matchReal Frontera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.72

Real Frontera

1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 105 away

1.77

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.77

Real Frontera

1.29

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.05

Real Frontera

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Real Frontera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw

74%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Real Frontera

76%

Draw or Real Frontera

50%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

27%

Real Frontera wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

82%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

51%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

25%

Real Frontera 1+ goals

69%

Real Frontera 2+ goals

33%

Real Frontera 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

66%

Real Frontera (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

50%

level

24%

Real Frontera scores more

26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff