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Real Estelí vs UNAN Managua — Primera Division 2026

Real Estelí
Real Estelí
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
3/18/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 10Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Real Estelí64%
×Draw21%
UNAN Managua15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Estelí
2.02
UNAN Managua
0.85

Real Estelí creates 138% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 93 away

creates per match

Real Estelí
2.06
UNAN Managua
1.08

allows per match

Real Estelí
0.62
UNAN Managua
1.98

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par
UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

UNAN Managua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw
85%
Real Estelí or UNAN Managua
79%
Draw or UNAN Managua
36%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+
40%
UNAN Managua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals
87%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
60%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
33%
UNAN Managua 1+ goals
57%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
21%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)
81%
UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.06 + UNAN Managua defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.02

UNAN Managua attack 1.08 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Estelí scores more
64%
level
21%
UNAN Managua scores more
15%

Real Estelí at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Estelí vs UNAN Managua

Real Estelí beat UNAN Managua 3-0 in Primera Division on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Independencia in Estelí.