Real Estelí 2–1 Juventus Managua: Result & Stats

Real Estelí

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Juventus Managua

C. Flores 20'

Douglas Caé 3'

Lucas dos Santos 42' (pen)

10/27/2022

Primera Division · Apertura - 14Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Real Estelí65%

×Draw21%

Juventus Managua14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EstelíExpected goals in this matchJuventus Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.73

Real Estelí

1.89

Juventus Managua

0.73

Real Estelí creates 159% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 74 away

2.09

creates per match

0.86

0.61

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Real Estelí

2.09

Juventus Managua

0.86

allows per match

Real Estelí

0.61

Juventus Managua

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Juventus Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw

86%

Real Estelí or Juventus Managua

79%

Draw or Juventus Managua

35%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+

39%

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals

85%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

56%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

29%

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

52%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

17%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

82%

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.61 · 148 matches

Juventus Managua away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.09 + Juventus Managua defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Juventus Managua attack 0.86 + Real Estelí defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Estelí scores more

65%

level

21%

Juventus Managua scores more

14%

Real Estelí at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Douglas Caé

20'

C. Flores

29'

K. Thomas← F. Gutiérrez

41'

J. Ortiz

42'

Lucas dos SantosPenalty

46'

M. López← P. Gállego

46'

Vinícius← K. Batiz

73'

R. Chávez← E. González

73'

J. Cisneros← E. Hernández

74'

E. Castillo← Douglas Caé

88'

Alex Chander← H. Medina

Real

Juventus

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Caé

▼

Gállego

⚽

Flores

Manager: R. Olivas

46'▲M. López←▼P. Gállego

46'▲Vinícius←▼K. Batiz

74'▲E. Castillo←▼Douglas Caé

88'▲Alex Chander←▼H. Medina

Real Estelí substitutes

LópezViníciusCastilloChanderSalandíaMartínezTalavera

Manager: D. Urbina

29'▲K. Thomas←▼F. Gutiérrez

73'▲R. Chávez←▼E. González

73'▲J. Cisneros←▼E. Hernández

Juventus Managua substitutes

ThomasChávezCisnerosDávilaCruzVieira

Primera Division: Real Estelí 2–1 Juventus Managua

Real Estelí beat Juventus Managua 2-1 in Primera Division on October 27, 2022.

Goals: Douglas Caé (3'), C. Flores (20'), Lucas dos Santos (42' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Independencia in Estelí.

Real Estelí vs Juventus Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Real Estelí 2–1 Juventus Managua