Real Estelí 1–0 H&H Export: Result & Stats

Real Estelí

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

H&H Export

5/11/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Real Estelí64%

×Draw21%

H&H Export15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EstelíExpected goals in this matchH&H Export

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.83

Real Estelí

1.97

H&H Export

0.83

Real Estelí creates 137% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 96 away

2.06

creates per match

1.05

0.62

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Real Estelí

2.06

H&H Export

1.05

allows per match

Real Estelí

0.62

H&H Export

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par

H&H Export+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

H&H Export →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw

85%

Real Estelí or H&H Export

79%

Draw or H&H Export

36%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+

39%

H&H Export wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals

86%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

58%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

31%

H&H Export 1+ goals

56%

H&H Export 2+ goals

20%

H&H Export 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

81%

H&H Export (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

H&H Export away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.88 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.06 + H&H Export defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

H&H Export attack 1.05 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Estelí scores more

64%

level

21%

H&H Export scores more

15%

Real Estelí at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Estelí vs H&H Export

Real Estelí vs H&H Export — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Estelí vs H&H Export