Real Estelí 3–1 Deportivo Ocotal: Result & Stats

Real Estelí

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Ocotal

Douglas Caé 68', 66', 25'

Y. López 14'

1/29/2023

Primera Division · Clausura - 2Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Real Estelí72%

×Draw18%

Deportivo Ocotal11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EstelíExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Ocotal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.71

Real Estelí

2.22

Deportivo Ocotal

0.71

Real Estelí creates 213% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 108 away

2.09

creates per match

0.83

0.60

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Real Estelí

2.09

Deportivo Ocotal

0.83

allows per match

Real Estelí

0.60

Deportivo Ocotal

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw

89%

Real Estelí or Deportivo Ocotal

82%

Draw or Deportivo Ocotal

28%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+

47%

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals

89%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

65%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

38%

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

51%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

16%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

87%

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.60 · 149 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.36 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.09 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.22

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.83 + Real Estelí defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Real Estelí scores more

72%

level

18%

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

11%

Real Estelí at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Y. López

25'

Douglas Caé

46'

R. Espinoza← Y. López

66'

Douglas Caé

68'

Douglas Caé

70'

H. García← J. Barrera

70'

Ó. Acevedo← K. Thomas

74'

C. Monge← Y. Arenas

74'

R. Molina← N. Cuadra

74'

O. Gómez← C. Pérez

79'

O. Salinas← Byron Bonilla

79'

W. Talavera← C. Flores

79'

J. Cano← M. Agurcia

Real

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: R. Olivas

70'▲H. García←▼J. Barrera

70'▲Ó. Acevedo←▼K. Thomas

79'▲O. Salinas←▼Byron Bonilla

79'▲W. Talavera←▼C. Flores

Real Estelí substitutes

GarcíaAcevedoSalinasTalaveraSalandíaMartínezMonserrat

Manager: S. López

46'▲R. Espinoza←▼Y. López

74'▲C. Monge←▼Y. Arenas

74'▲R. Molina←▼N. Cuadra

74'▲O. Gómez←▼C. Pérez

79'▲J. Cano←▼M. Agurcia

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

EspinozaMongeMolinaGómezCanoFernándezMairena