Deportivo Ocotal 3–4 Real Estelí: Result & Stats

Deportivo Ocotal

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Real Estelí

11/4/2024

Primera Division · Apertura - 13Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal31%

×Draw27%

Real Estelí42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo OcotalExpected goals in this matchReal Estelí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.35

Deportivo Ocotal

1.11

Real Estelí

1.35

Real Estelí creates 22% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 150 away

1.20

creates per match

1.67

1.04

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.20

Real Estelí

1.67

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.04

Real Estelí

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Real Estelí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw

58%

Deportivo Ocotal or Real Estelí

73%

Draw or Real Estelí

69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

12%

Real Estelí wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

10%

Real Estelí 1+ goals

74%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

39%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

42%

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.20 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

31%

level

27%

Real Estelí scores more

42%

Real Estelí at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff