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Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm — Liga Nacional 2018

Real Espana
Real Espana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
4/13/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 15Estadio Francisco Morazán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Real Espana55%
×Draw24%
Lobos Upnfm22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Espana
1.73
Lobos Upnfm
0.99

Real Espana creates 75% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 150 away

creates per match

Real Espana
1.63
Lobos Upnfm
0.99

allows per match

Real Espana
1.00
Lobos Upnfm
1.84

finishing

Real Espana+0.00on par
Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Espana ↓

Lobos Upnfm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Espana or draw
78%
Real Espana or Lobos Upnfm
76%
Draw or Lobos Upnfm
45%

Winning margin

Real Espana wins by 2+
30%
Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Espana 1+ goals
82%
Real Espana 2+ goals
52%
Real Espana 3+ goals
25%
Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
63%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
26%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Espana (draw refunded)
72%
Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Espana at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 159 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.84 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Espana attack 1.63 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.99 + Real Espana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Espana scores more
55%
level
24%
Lobos Upnfm scores more
22%

Real Espana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm

Real Espana beat Lobos Upnfm 2-1 in Liga Nacional on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Morazán in San Pedro Sula.