Real de Minas 1–1 Juticalpa: Result & Stats

Real de Minas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Juticalpa

3/17/2019

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Marcelo Tinoco (Danlí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real de Minas48%

×Draw25%

Juticalpa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real de MinasExpected goals in this matchJuticalpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.17

Real de Minas

1.62

Juticalpa

1.17

Real de Minas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 58 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.48

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Real de Minas

1.17

Juticalpa

0.86

allows per match

Real de Minas

1.48

Juticalpa

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real de Minas+0.00on par

Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Minas ↓

Juticalpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real de Minas or draw

72%

Real de Minas or Juticalpa

75%

Draw or Juticalpa

52%

Winning margin

Real de Minas wins by 2+

25%

Juticalpa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real de Minas 1+ goals

80%

Real de Minas 2+ goals

48%

Real de Minas 3+ goals

22%

Juticalpa 1+ goals

69%

Juticalpa 2+ goals

33%

Juticalpa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real de Minas (draw refunded)

63%

Juticalpa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Minas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Minas attack 1.17 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Juticalpa attack 0.86 + Real de Minas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real de Minas scores more

48%

level

25%

Juticalpa scores more

28%

Real de Minas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real de Minas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff