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Real de Minas vs CD Real Sociedad — Liga Nacional 2018

Real de Minas
Real de Minas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CD Real Sociedad
CD Real Sociedad
12/5/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 6Estadio Marcelo Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real de Minas47%
×Draw25%
CD Real Sociedad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real de Minas
1.57
CD Real Sociedad
1.15

Real de Minas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 102 away

creates per match

Real de Minas
1.17
CD Real Sociedad
0.82

allows per match

Real de Minas
1.48
CD Real Sociedad
1.97

finishing

Real de Minas+0.00on par
CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Minas ↓

CD Real Sociedad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real de Minas or draw
72%
Real de Minas or CD Real Sociedad
75%
Draw or CD Real Sociedad
53%

Winning margin

Real de Minas wins by 2+
24%
CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real de Minas 1+ goals
79%
Real de Minas 2+ goals
46%
Real de Minas 3+ goals
21%
CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals
68%
CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals
32%
CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real de Minas (draw refunded)
63%
CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Minas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

CD Real Sociedad away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.97 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Minas attack 1.17 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

CD Real Sociedad attack 0.82 + Real de Minas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real de Minas scores more
47%
level
25%
CD Real Sociedad scores more
28%

Real de Minas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real de Minas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Real de Minas 2–1 CD Real Sociedad

Real de Minas beat CD Real Sociedad 2-1 in Liga Nacional on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Marcelo Tinoco in Danlí.