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Real de Banjul vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
1/5/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real de Banjul54%
×Draw27%
Dutch Lions20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real de Banjul
1.44
Dutch Lions
0.75

Real de Banjul creates 92% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real de Banjul
1.64
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Real de Banjul
0.80
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Real de Banjul+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Banjul ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real de Banjul or draw
80%
Real de Banjul or Dutch Lions
73%
Draw or Dutch Lions
46%

Winning margin

Real de Banjul wins by 2+
27%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real de Banjul 1+ goals
76%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
42%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
18%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
53%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
17%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
73%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Banjul at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 88 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Banjul attack 1.64 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Real de Banjul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real de Banjul scores more
54%
level
27%
Dutch Lions scores more
20%

Real de Banjul at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real de Banjul vs Dutch Lions

Dutch Lions beat Real de Banjul 2-0 in GFA League on January 5, 2026.