Real de Banjul 2–1 Bombada: Result & Stats

Real de Banjul

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bombada

3/9/2025

GFA League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real de Banjul52%

×Draw27%

Bombada22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real de BanjulExpected goals in this matchBombada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.84

Real de Banjul

1.46

Bombada

0.84

Real de Banjul creates 74% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 45 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real de Banjul

1.64

Bombada

0.89

allows per match

Real de Banjul

0.80

Bombada

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Bombada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Banjul ↓

Bombada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real de Banjul or draw

78%

Real de Banjul or Bombada

73%

Draw or Bombada

48%

Winning margin

Real de Banjul wins by 2+

26%

Bombada wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real de Banjul 1+ goals

77%

Real de Banjul 2+ goals

43%

Real de Banjul 3+ goals

18%

Bombada 1+ goals

57%

Bombada 2+ goals

21%

Bombada 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real de Banjul (draw refunded)

70%

Bombada (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Banjul at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 88 matches

Bombada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Banjul attack 1.64 + Bombada defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bombada attack 0.89 + Real de Banjul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real de Banjul scores more

52%

level

27%

Bombada scores more

22%

Real de Banjul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff