Real Cartagena 4–1 Quindio: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Quindio

5/18/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 153+ matches

Real Cartagena47%

×Draw27%

Quindio27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchQuindio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.01

Real Cartagena

1.43

Quindio

1.01

Real Cartagena creates 42% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 153 away

1.68

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.68

Quindio

0.96

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Quindio

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Quindio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

73%

Real Cartagena or Quindio

73%

Draw or Quindio

53%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

23%

Quindio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

76%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

42%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

17%

Quindio 1+ goals

64%

Quindio 2+ goals

27%

Quindio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

64%

Quindio (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 163 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Quindio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Quindio attack 0.96 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

47%

level

27%

Quindio scores more

27%

Real Cartagena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff