Real Cartagena 2–0 Internacional Palmira

Real Cartagena

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional Palmira

2/3/2024

Primera B · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Cartagena45%

×Draw26%

Internacional Palmira29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchInternacional Palmira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Real Cartagena

1.46

Internacional Palmira

1.11

Real Cartagena creates 32% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 49 away

1.68

creates per match

1.16

1.06

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.68

Internacional Palmira

1.16

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Internacional Palmira

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Internacional Palmira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

71%

Real Cartagena or Internacional Palmira

74%

Draw or Internacional Palmira

55%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

22%

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

77%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

43%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

18%

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

67%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

30%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 163 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

45%

level

26%

Internacional Palmira scores more

29%

Real Cartagena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff