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Internacional Palmira vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Internacional Palmira
Internacional Palmira
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
1/31/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 1Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Internacional Palmira47%
×Draw29%
Real Cartagena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Palmira
1.29
Real Cartagena
0.85

Internacional Palmira creates 52% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 162 away

creates per match

Internacional Palmira
1.23
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Internacional Palmira
0.77
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira or draw
75%
Internacional Palmira or Real Cartagena
71%
Draw or Real Cartagena
53%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+
22%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals
72%
Internacional Palmira 2+ goals
37%
Internacional Palmira 3+ goals
14%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
57%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
21%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)
66%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira attack 1.23 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Internacional Palmira defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Internacional Palmira scores more
47%
level
29%
Real Cartagena scores more
25%

Internacional Palmira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Internacional Palmira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional Palmira vs Real Cartagena

Internacional Palmira beat Real Cartagena 2-0 in Primera B on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.