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Real Calepina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Real Calepina
Real Calepina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
9/22/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina36%
×Draw27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Calepina
1.22
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Real Calepina
1.21
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Real Calepina
1.00
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw
63%
Real Calepina or Dolomiti Bellunesi
73%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
64%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+
15%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals
70%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
34%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
12%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
71%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
35%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)
50%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Calepina scores more
36%
level
27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
37%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Real Calepina 0–2 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Real Calepina 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli in Adro.