Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Calepina vs Caravaggio — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Real Calepina
Real Calepina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
4/27/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 37Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina43%
×Draw28%
Caravaggio29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Calepina
1.29
Caravaggio
1.02

Real Calepina creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Calepina
1.21
Caravaggio
1.05

allows per match

Real Calepina
1.00
Caravaggio
1.37

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw
71%
Real Calepina or Caravaggio
72%
Draw or Caravaggio
57%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+
19%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals
72%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
37%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
14%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
64%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
27%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)
59%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Calepina scores more
43%
level
28%
Caravaggio scores more
29%

Real Calepina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Real Calepina 0–1 Caravaggio

Caravaggio beat Real Calepina 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico in Grumello del Monte.