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Real Brasília W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santos W
Santos W
3/6/2022Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Brasília W34%
×Draw25%
Santos W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Brasília W
1.34
Santos W
1.48

Santos W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

creates per match

Real Brasília W
1.22
Santos W
1.85

allows per match

Real Brasília W
1.11
Santos W
1.47

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par
Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

Santos W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw
59%
Real Brasília W or Santos W
75%
Draw or Santos W
66%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+
15%
Santos W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals
74%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
39%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
15%
Santos W 1+ goals
77%
Santos W 2+ goals
43%
Santos W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
46%
Santos W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + Santos W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Santos W attack 1.85 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Brasília W scores more
34%
level
25%
Santos W scores more
41%

Santos W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Brasília W vs Santos W

Real Brasília W beat Santos W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo in Vila Planalto, Distrito Federal.