Real Brasília W 1–1 Minas ICESP W: Result & Stats

Real Brasília W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Minas ICESP W

6/3/2021

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Real Brasília W52%

×Draw26%

Minas ICESP W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Brasília WExpected goals in this matchMinas ICESP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.87

Real Brasília W

1.52

Minas ICESP W

0.87

Real Brasília W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 24 away

1.22

creates per match

0.63

1.11

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Real Brasília W

1.22

Minas ICESP W

0.63

allows per match

Real Brasília W

1.11

Minas ICESP W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

Minas ICESP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw

78%

Real Brasília W or Minas ICESP W

74%

Draw or Minas ICESP W

48%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

27%

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

78%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

45%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

20%

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals

58%

Minas ICESP W 2+ goals

22%

Minas ICESP W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

71%

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Brasília W scores more

52%

level

26%

Minas ICESP W scores more

22%

Real Brasília W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Brasília W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff