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Real Brasília W vs Gremio W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gremio W
Gremio W
4/2/2022Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Brasília W42%
×Draw27%
Gremio W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Brasília W
1.34
Gremio W
1.12

Real Brasília W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Real Brasília W
1.22
Gremio W
1.13

allows per match

Real Brasília W
1.11
Gremio W
1.47

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par
Gremio W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

Gremio W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw
69%
Real Brasília W or Gremio W
73%
Draw or Gremio W
58%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+
19%
Gremio W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals
74%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
39%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
15%
Gremio W 1+ goals
67%
Gremio W 2+ goals
31%
Gremio W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
57%
Gremio W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Gremio W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + Gremio W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gremio W attack 1.13 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Brasília W scores more
42%
level
27%
Gremio W scores more
31%

Real Brasília W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Brasília W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Real Brasília W 1–1 Gremio W

Real Brasília W and Gremio W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo in Vila Planalto, Distrito Federal.