Real Brasília W 1–1 America Mineiro W

Real Brasília W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

America Mineiro W

5/18/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Real Brasília W48%

×Draw25%

America Mineiro W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Brasília WExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.17

Real Brasília W

1.63

America Mineiro W

1.17

Real Brasília W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

1.11

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Real Brasília W

1.22

America Mineiro W

1.23

allows per match

Real Brasília W

1.11

America Mineiro W

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

America Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

America Mineiro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw

73%

Real Brasília W or America Mineiro W

75%

Draw or America Mineiro W

52%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

25%

America Mineiro W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

80%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

48%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

22%

America Mineiro W 1+ goals

69%

America Mineiro W 2+ goals

33%

America Mineiro W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

64%

America Mineiro W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

America Mineiro W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + America Mineiro W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

America Mineiro W attack 1.23 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Brasília W scores more

48%

level

25%

America Mineiro W scores more

27%

Real Brasília W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Brasília W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff