Real Betis W 0–3 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Real Betis W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Real Madrid W

S. Toletti 45'

S. Bruun 28', 10'

9/14/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 2Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Real Betis W17%

×Draw21%

Real Madrid W63%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.05

Real Betis W

0.94

Real Madrid W

2.05

Real Madrid W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

0.95

creates per match

2.29

1.81

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Real Betis W

0.95

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Real Betis W

1.81

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw

37%

Real Betis W or Real Madrid W

79%

Draw or Real Madrid W

83%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+

5%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals

61%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

24%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

7%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

87%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

61%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

21%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.81 · 77 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 0.95 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Betis W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Betis W scores more

17%

level

21%

Real Madrid W scores more

63%

Real Madrid W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Bruun

Real Madrid W · F

8.6

Match Events

10'

S. Bruun

28'

Olga CarmonaMissed penalty

28'

S. Bruun

40'

Esther Martín-Pozuelo

45'

S. Toletti

46'

Naima García← Júlia Aguado

46'

Blanca Muñoz← Esther Martín-Pozuelo

46'

Nuria Ligero← E. Santoro

46'

Alba Redondo← M. Leupolz

46'

C. Weir← S. Toletti

46'

F. Angeldahl← Athenea del Castillo

62'

María Ruiz← Carolina Férez

65'

Signe Bruun

66'

Carla Camacho← S. Bruun

73'

Oihane Hernández← Sheila García

81'

Gema Soliveres

89'

Marina Sánchez← Gema Soliveres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealReal

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots25

2Corners7

14Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots25

1On Target10

5Off Target9

1Blocked6

5Inside Box14

2Outside Box11

Passing

36%Possession64%

277Total Passes493

186Accurate Passes429

67%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4