Real Betis W 0–3 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Real Betis W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Real Madrid W

11/21/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 9Polideportivo Felipe del Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Betis W20%

×Draw22%

Real Madrid W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.95

Real Betis W

1.03

Real Madrid W

1.95

Real Madrid W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 92 away

1.14

creates per match

2.29

1.61

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Real Betis W

1.14

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Real Betis W

1.61

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw

41%

Real Betis W or Real Madrid W

78%

Draw or Real Madrid W

80%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+

7%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals

64%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

28%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

9%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

86%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

58%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

25%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Betis W scores more

20%

level

22%

Real Madrid W scores more

59%

Real Madrid W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff