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Real Betis W vs Fundacion Albacete W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Betis W
Real Betis W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fundacion Albacete W
Fundacion Albacete W
5/21/2017Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Betis W47%
×Draw23%
Fundacion Albacete W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis W
1.81
Fundacion Albacete W
1.43

Real Betis W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 33 away

creates per match

Real Betis W
1.14
Fundacion Albacete W
1.24

allows per match

Real Betis W
1.61
Fundacion Albacete W
2.48

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par
Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Fundacion Albacete W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw
69%
Real Betis W or Fundacion Albacete W
77%
Draw or Fundacion Albacete W
53%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+
25%
Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals
84%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
54%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
27%
Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals
76%
Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals
42%
Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)
60%
Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Fundacion Albacete W away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.24 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Betis W scores more
47%
level
23%
Fundacion Albacete W scores more
31%

Real Betis W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis W vs Fundacion Albacete W

Real Betis W beat Fundacion Albacete W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on May 21, 2017.