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Real Betis W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Betis W
Real Betis W
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
9/14/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 2Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Real Betis W45%
×Draw23%
Deportivo de La Coruña W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis W
1.74
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.42

Real Betis W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 59 away

creates per match

Real Betis W
1.14
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.22

allows per match

Real Betis W
1.61
Deportivo de La Coruña W
2.34

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par
Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw
68%
Real Betis W or Deportivo de La Coruña W
77%
Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W
55%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals
82%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
52%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
25%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.74

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Betis W scores more
45%
level
23%
Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
32%

Real Betis W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Betis W 3–4 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Deportivo de La Coruña W beat Real Betis W 4-3 in Primera División Femenina on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.