Deportivo de La Coruña W 1–3 Real Betis W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Real Betis W

2/14/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 15Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W48%

×Draw24%

Real Betis W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo de La Coruña WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.71

Real Betis W

1.25

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 104 away

1.32

creates per match

1.03

1.48

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.32

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.48

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw

72%

Deportivo de La Coruña W or Real Betis W

76%

Draw or Real Betis W

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

26%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

51%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

24%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

71%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

36%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

63%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

48%

level

24%

Real Betis W scores more

28%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff