Real Betis 1–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Real Betis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mallorca

Borja Iglesias 48'

3/19/2023

La Liga · Round 26Estadio Benito Villamarín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Real Betis53%

×Draw24%

Mallorca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real BetisExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.02

Real Betis

1.68

Mallorca

1.02

Real Betis creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

1.61

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Real Betis

1.61

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Real Betis

1.10

Mallorca

1.74

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Real Betis-0.15scores less

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Betis or draw

77%

Real Betis or Mallorca

76%

Draw or Mallorca

47%

Winning margin

Real Betis wins by 2+

29%

Mallorca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Betis 1+ goals

81%

Real Betis 2+ goals

50%

Real Betis 3+ goals

24%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

27%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Betis (draw refunded)

70%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.10 · 35 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis attack 1.61 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Real Betis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Betis scores more

53%

level

24%

Mallorca scores more

23%

Real Betis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Betis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ayoze Pérez

Real Betis · M

7.7

Match Events

31'

Jaume Costa

48'

Borja Iglesias↳ Y. Sabaly

54'

Matija Nastasić

57'

T. Kadewere← Dani Rodríguez

57'

Antonio Sánchez← I. Baba

57'

L. Augustinsson← Jaume Costa

69'

Juanmi← Rodri

69'

William Carvalho← Ayoze Pérez

71'

A. Ndiaye← Pablo Maffeo

77'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

80'

Andrés Guardado

83'

Joaquín← Sergio Canales

83'

Víctor Ruiz← G. Pezzella

90+2'

Willian José← Borja Iglesias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealMallorca

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots5

0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.18

4Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots5

3On Target1

2Off Target3

5Blocked1

3Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

572Total Passes364

485Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Real Betis vs Mallorca

Real Betis beat Mallorca 1-0 in La Liga on March 19, 2023.

Goals: Borja Iglesias (48').

Real Betis controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Benito Villamarín in Sevilla.

Real Betis vs Mallorca — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Real Betis vs Mallorca