Real Betis 2–1 Celje: Result & Stats

Real Betis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Celje

Juanmi 90+4'

Natan 75'

Juanjo Nieto 81'

11/7/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Estadio Benito Villamarín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Betis38%

×Draw25%

Celje37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real BetisExpected goals in this matchCelje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.42

Real Betis

1.44

Celje

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.73

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Real Betis

1.40

Celje

1.73

allows per match

Real Betis

1.10

Celje

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis+0.00on par

Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis ↓

Celje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Betis or draw

63%

Real Betis or Celje

75%

Draw or Celje

62%

Winning margin

Real Betis wins by 2+

18%

Celje wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real Betis 1+ goals

76%

Real Betis 2+ goals

42%

Real Betis 3+ goals

18%

Celje 1+ goals

76%

Celje 2+ goals

41%

Celje 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Real Betis (draw refunded)

51%

Celje (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Celje away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis attack 1.40 + Celje defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Celje attack 1.73 + Real Betis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Betis scores more

38%

level

25%

Celje scores more

37%

Real Betis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Betis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Y. Sabaly

Real Betis · D

8.2

Match Events

35'

46'

49'

54'

54'

60'

A. Ezzalzouli← Mateo Flores

60'

Vitor Roque← C. Bakambu

71'

Sergi Altimira← J. Cardoso

72'

Juanmi← E. Ávila

72'

M. Dulca← T. Svetlin

72'

K. Nemanič← Ž. Karničnik

75'

Natan↳ Y. Sabaly

77'

Diego Llorente← Natan

81'

Juanjo Nieto↳ S. Sešlar

90+1'

Lovro Štubljar

90+1'

C. Lhernault← S. Sešlar

90+4'

Juanmi↳ Assane Diao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealCelje

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots8

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.83

4Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target2

9Off Target3

4Blocked3

11Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

477Total Passes444

418Accurate Passes372

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.38Goals Prevented-0.38

Discipline

14Fouls9

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides5