Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Betis II vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
CANC
00:00
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II60%
×Draw21%
Xerez Deportivo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
2.06
Xerez Deportivo
1.06

Real Betis II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 43 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
3.07
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Real Betis II
0.79
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
81%
Real Betis II or Xerez Deportivo
79%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
40%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
37%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
87%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
61%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
34%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
29%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
76%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 2.06

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Betis II scores more
60%
level
21%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
19%

Real Betis II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Betis II host Xerez Deportivo

March 29, 2020: Real Betis II take on Xerez Deportivo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Betis II host Xerez Deportivo at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.