Real Betis II 1–0 Ucam Murcia: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ucam Murcia

9/4/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II41%

×Draw26%

Ucam Murcia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchUcam Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.28

Real Betis II

1.43

Ucam Murcia

1.28

Real Betis II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

0.89

1.67

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Ucam Murcia

0.89

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Ucam Murcia

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Ucam Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

66%

Real Betis II or Ucam Murcia

74%

Draw or Ucam Murcia

59%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

19%

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

76%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

42%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

17%

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Ucam Murcia 2+ goals

37%

Ucam Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

55%

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Betis II scores more

41%

level

26%

Ucam Murcia scores more

34%

Real Betis II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff