Real Betis II 1–2 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Murcia

R. Marina 62'

D. Bosilj 84', 18'

11/2/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Betis II28%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.42

Real Betis II

1.04

Real Murcia

1.42

Real Murcia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.12

creates per match

1.18

1.67

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

54%

Real Betis II or Real Murcia

73%

Draw or Real Murcia

72%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

10%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

65%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

28%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

9%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

76%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

41%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

38%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Betis II scores more

28%

level

27%

Real Murcia scores more

46%

Real Murcia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

18'

33'

35'

41'

45+2'

46'

A. P. Benito P.← Joao Pedro Palmberg

53'

Antonio David← I. Gomez

56'

57'

57'

59'

60'

61'

A. Toral← K. Sosu

62'

R. Marina

71'

D. Ilahude← C. Reina

73'

Juan Carlos← S. Djanbou

76'

H. Perez

84'

P. Leon← E. Zenitagoia

84'

D. Bosilj

86'

A. Bustos

89'

D. Traore← D. Bladi

89'

J. A. Morante← G. Bouare

Real

1

26

2

6

3

30

▼

Palmberg

31

▼

Djanbou

10

▼

Gomez

11

Bustos

23

⚽2

Bosilj

20

▼

31

2

25

15

23

▼

Bladi

6

Mensah

20

Gismera

18

▼

Bouare

14

▼

Sosu

30

⚽

Marina

10

▼

Reina

Manager: Arzu

61'▲A. Toral←▼K. Sosu

71'▲D. Ilahude←▼C. Reina

89'▲D. Traore←▼D. Bladi

89'▲J. A. Morante←▼G. Bouare

Real Betis II substitutes

1Garcia33Roa4Zidane12Embalo29Martin19Traore16Sorroche11Ilahude17Toral27Morante9Senhadji22Alonso

Manager: Fran Fernández

46'▲A. P. Benito P.←▼Joao Pedro Palmberg

53'▲Antonio David←▼I. Gomez

73'▲Juan Carlos←▼S. Djanbou

84'▲P. Leon←▼E. Zenitagoia

Real Murcia substitutes

35Kajaia33Llobell4Lopez34Sanchez22Carlos16David29Sarabia8Schalk19Cadorini9P.14Leon

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 1–2 Real Murcia

Real Murcia beat Real Betis II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 2, 2025.

Goals: D. Bosilj (18', 84'), R. Marina (62').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.

Real Betis II vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 1–2 Real Murcia