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Real Betis II vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
1/17/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Betis II34%
×Draw27%
Real Madrid II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
1.20
Real Madrid II
1.32

Real Madrid II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
1.12
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Real Betis II
1.67
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
61%
Real Betis II or Real Madrid II
73%
Draw or Real Madrid II
66%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
14%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
70%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
34%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
12%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
73%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
38%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
46%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Betis II scores more
34%
level
27%
Real Madrid II scores more
39%

Real Madrid II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 1–3 Real Madrid II

Real Madrid II beat Real Betis II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.