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Real Betis II vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
2/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Betis II37%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
1.29
Mérida AD
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
1.12
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Real Betis II
1.67
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
64%
Real Betis II or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
63%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
16%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
72%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
37%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
14%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
72%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
36%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
51%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Betis II scores more
37%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
36%

Real Betis II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis II vs Mérida AD

Mérida AD beat Real Betis II 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.