Real Betis II 0–3 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnastic

Robert Simón 90+5'

Álex Quintanilla 67'

Javier Bonilla 65'

1/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Betis II35%

×Draw28%

Gimnastic37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Real Betis II

1.15

Gimnastic

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.12

creates per match

0.72

1.67

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Gimnastic

0.72

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Gimnastic

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

63%

Real Betis II or Gimnastic

72%

Draw or Gimnastic

65%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

14%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

68%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

32%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

11%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

70%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

33%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

49%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Betis II scores more

35%

level

28%

Gimnastic scores more

37%

Gimnastic at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

P. Fernandez

32'

Javier Bonilla← Nil Jiménez

34'

R. Tavares

35'

M. Baro

45'

P. Domingo Ciuraneta

56'

E. Perez

59'

Ángel Baena← M. Sanhaji

65'

Javier Bonilla

67'

Álex Quintanilla

68'

Fran Callejón← Raúl Tavares

70'

Javi Ribelles← Elías Pérez

78'

Álvaro Martínez← Marc Baró

78'

Fran Delgado← Luis Martínez

78'

K. Sibo← Marchena

86'

K. L'Koucha← Fran Carbià

90+5'

Robert Simón

Real

Gimnastic

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo del Pino

59'▲Ángel Baena←▼M. Sanhaji

68'▲Fran Callejón←▼Raúl Tavares

78'▲Álvaro Martínez←▼Marc Baró

78'▲Fran Delgado←▼Luis Martínez

78'▲K. Sibo←▼Marchena

Real Betis II substitutes

BaenaCallejónMartínezDelgadoSiboMartíVidalFernández

Manager: Raúl Agné

32'▲Javier Bonilla←▼Nil Jiménez

70'▲Javi Ribelles←▼Elías Pérez

86'▲K. L'Koucha←▼Fran Carbià

Gimnastic substitutes

BonillaRibellesL'KouchaRomeraGonziMontalvoMartínValverde

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 0–3 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Real Betis II 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

Goals: Javier Bonilla (65'), Álex Quintanilla (67'), Robert Simón (90+5').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.

Real Betis II vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 0–3 Gimnastic