Real Betis II 3–2 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

FC Andorra

Ángel Baena 39'

Gonçalo Cardoso 34'

Fran Callejón 8' (pen)

Adrià Vilanova 63'

David Martín 57'

4/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II31%

×Draw25%

FC Andorra44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.54

Real Betis II

1.27

FC Andorra

1.54

FC Andorra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

1.42

1.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

FC Andorra

1.42

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

FC Andorra

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

56%

Real Betis II or FC Andorra

75%

Draw or FC Andorra

69%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

13%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

72%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

36%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

14%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

79%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

45%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

42%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + FC Andorra defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Andorra attack 1.42 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Betis II scores more

31%

level

25%

FC Andorra scores more

44%

FC Andorra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Fran CallejónPenalty

25'

34'

39'

45'

46'

Álex Pastor← Marc Pedraza

54'

David Martín← Marc Fernández

54'

Martí Vilà← Eudald Vergés

54'

Rubén Bover← Riverola

57'

62'

63'

64'

65'

72'

Fran Delgado← Ángel Baena

72'

Manu Nieto← Z. Thior

82'

Álvaro Martínez← Fran Callejón

82'

Raúl García← Juan Cruz

83'

S. Lecea

90+1'

R. Tavares

Real

FC

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⚽

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Baena

Manager: Pablo del Pino

64'▲Y. Fékir←▼M. Sanhaji

72'▲Fran Delgado←▼Ángel Baena

82'▲Álvaro Martínez←▼Fran Callejón

82'▲Raúl García←▼Juan Cruz

Real Betis II substitutes

FékirDelgadoMartínezGarcíaRebolloCastilloMartínez

Manager: Eder Sarabia

46'▲Álex Pastor←▼Marc Pedraza

54'▲David Martín←▼Marc Fernández

54'▲Martí Vilà←▼Eudald Vergés

54'▲Rubén Bover←▼Riverola

72'▲Manu Nieto←▼Z. Thior

FC Andorra substitutes

PastorMartínVilàBoverNietoAltimiraCañeteGutiMartínezCasadesúsRieraEnri

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 3–2 FC Andorra

Real Betis II beat FC Andorra 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 30, 2022.

Goals: Fran Callejón (8' pen), Gonçalo Cardoso (34'), Ángel Baena (39'), David Martín (57'), Adrià Vilanova (63').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.

Real Betis II vs FC Andorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 3–2 FC Andorra