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Real Betis II vs Alcoyano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
11/9/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Betis II34%
×Draw27%
Alcoyano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
1.17
Alcoyano
1.29

Alcoyano creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
1.12
Alcoyano
0.91

allows per match

Real Betis II
1.67
Alcoyano
1.21

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
61%
Real Betis II or Alcoyano
73%
Draw or Alcoyano
66%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
14%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
69%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
33%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
11%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
72%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
37%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
46%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Betis II scores more
34%
level
27%
Alcoyano scores more
39%

Alcoyano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 4–0 Alcoyano

Real Betis II beat Alcoyano 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.