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Réal Bamako vs USFAS Bamako — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
11/24/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Réal Bamako44%
×Draw30%
USFAS Bamako26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.18
USFAS Bamako
0.84

Réal Bamako creates 40% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 93 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
USFAS Bamako
0.99

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
USFAS Bamako
1.05

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

USFAS Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
74%
Réal Bamako or USFAS Bamako
70%
Draw or USFAS Bamako
56%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
19%
USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
69%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
33%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
12%
USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
57%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
21%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
63%
USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
44%
level
30%
USFAS Bamako scores more
26%

Réal Bamako at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs USFAS Bamako

Réal Bamako and USFAS Bamako drew 0-0 in Première Division on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.