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Réal Bamako vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
1 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
6/19/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 30Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Réal Bamako47%
×Draw31%
USC Kita23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.18
USC Kita
0.73

Réal Bamako creates 62% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 66 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
77%
Réal Bamako or USC Kita
69%
Draw or USC Kita
53%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
20%
USC Kita wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
69%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
33%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
12%
USC Kita 1+ goals
52%
USC Kita 2+ goals
17%
USC Kita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
67%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
47%
level
31%
USC Kita scores more
23%

Réal Bamako at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs USC Kita

Réal Bamako beat USC Kita 1-0 in Première Division on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.